U.S.
intelligence agencies do not see Russia as capable of using
cyberespionage to alter the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election,
but they have warned that Moscow may continue meddling after the voting
has ended to sow doubts about the legitimacy of the result, U.S.
officials said.
The assessment reflects widespread concern among
U.S. spy agencies that a months-long campaign by Russia to rattle the
mechanisms of American democracy will probably continue after polls
close on one of the most polarizing races in recent history, extending
and amplifying the political turbulence.
U.S. security officials
have not ruled out Russian-sponsored disruption on Election Day. In
recent weeks, officials at the Department of Homeland Security have
collected evidence of apparent Russian “scanning” of state-run databases
and computer voting systems. “Whether they were really trying hard to
get in, it’s not clear,” a U.S. official said.
Still, the
decentralized nature of U.S. polling would make it extraordinarily
difficult to subvert a nationwide race. Instead, U.S. officials said it
is more likely that Russia would use hacking tools to expose or
fabricate signs of vote-rigging, aiming to delegitimize an election
outcome that Republican candidate Donald Trump has said he may refuse to
accept if he does not win.
“I think it’s correct to say the
Russians don’t think they can dictate the outcome,” said Rep. Adam B.
Schiff (Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee.
But even as votes are being tallied Tuesday, Schiff said, Russian
intelligence services are likely to be “looking through their troves of
hacked documents and seeing what they can release.”
Whether Trump
or Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton prevails, Schiff said, the United
States “can expect a lot more of the same in terms of cyber-malevolence
and influence” from Moscow.
U.S. officials said there is still
time for last-minute disruptions, even if the overall election appears
relatively secure. Several officials said they fear that even an
isolated operation that forces a voting system offline could erode
confidence. Schiff and others said they remain worried that Moscow could
dump doctored documents over the weekend that appear to expose
illegality by the Clinton or Trump campaigns — disclosures designed to
create confusion among voters and be difficult to disprove before
citizens cast their votes.
No forgeries have so far been
identified among the thousands of files that U.S. officials believe were
stolen by Russia and essentially laundered to the U.S. public and media
through the WikiLeaks website.
The fact that Russia has so far
refrained from altering documents or planting forgeries among the leaked
emails is seen by some U.S. officials as potentially setting the stage
for a more sinister plot. The media and public have come to see the
WikiLeaks stockpiles as authentic, increasing the potential impact if
Russia were to insert a deliberate but compelling falsehood.
Russian
President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly denied any Russian involvement
in the election-related hacks. But those assertions have been
dismissed by U.S. intelligence agencies and cybersecurity experts, with
some saying that Russia engaged in sloppy tradecraft or seemed not
terribly concerned about covering its tracks.
Anxiety about
late-election vulnerabilities has factored into the Obama
administration’s reluctance so far to retaliate against Russia.
The
White House has opted against authorizing any countermeasures despite
high confidence across U.S. spy agencies that Russia alone orchestrated
the digital theft of thousands of sensitive documents posted online in
recent months by WikiLeaks. The releases have included hacked files of
the Democratic National Committee and emails of Clinton campaign
chairman John Podesta, among others.
The White House has been
weighing countermeasures for months but worried that retaliating before
the election would give Moscow time to inflict more direct damage in the
waning days of the campaign.
“Escalation in the cyber-realm can
happen quickly,” a senior U.S. official said. Those urging restraint say
they believe the Russian threat would be diminished after Election Day.
Officials said the White House is also reluctant to take decisions on
an escalation that could have profound implications for the next
president.
U.S. officials said the options under consideration
include kicking more suspected Russian intelligence officers out of the
United States, imposing new economic sanctions against Russian entities
tied to the alleged hacking and potentially launching cyberattacks on
Russian computer systems. Obama used cyberweapons to hobble Iran’s
nuclear program early in his first term but has been reluctant to go
down that road again, aides say.
The administration’s decision
could depend on what the Russians do in the coming days. An
election-disrupting attack would probably trigger a more aggressive U.S.
response, according to officials. U.S. officials say the stakes have
been made clear to Moscow.
The election-related tensions are part
of a broader escalation in the level of antagonism between the United
States and its former Cold War adversary. The two countries are fighting
a proxy war against each other in Syria, are competing for influence
elsewhere in the Middle East and are at odds over Russian intervention
in Ukraine.
The hack of the DNC was blamed on Russia by cybersecurity experts and U.S. officials the moment it was publicly disclosed in June. The administration formally went public with its case last month,
issuing a statement from Director of National Intelligence James R.
Clapper Jr. and Homeland Security Director Jeh Johnson concluding that
intrusions were authorized by “Russia’s senior most officials.”
Even
so, there is still disagreement among some agencies and analysts over
Moscow’s objectives. The White House has maintained that it does not
believe Russia’s operations have been aimed at delivering an election
win for Trump, who has praised Putin and argued there is no evidence of
Russian involvement in the hacks — a position at odds with what he has
been told in classified briefings. The operations could be a more
general effort to embarrass the United States and disrupt democratic
institutions.
Clinton has said that Russia is seeking to ensure
her defeat, a contention some U.S. intelligence officials say they
believe is supported by the one-sided nature of the leaks. U.S.
officials have speculated that Putin harbors personal animosity toward
Clinton, believing that while serving as secretary of state she helped
incite mass protests in Moscow that embarrassed the former KGB
operative.
Even if there are no further election-related
disruptions and Clinton emerges victorious, some U.S. officials believe
that Russia has already accomplished many of its goals.
“They’ve
weakened Secretary Clinton by dumping information from her campaign
manager and others,” Schiff said. The leaks have exposed infighting
between Clinton and her former Democratic opponent, Sen. Bernie Sanders
of Vermont, forced the resignation of the DNC chief and — perhaps most
importantly — cast Russia and its capacity to inflict damage as an
ominous figure looming over the 2016 campaign.
“They enjoy being
the subject of discussion in an American election,” Schiff said. “It
enhances their prestige in a bizarre way that they’re considered a
player. This is also their way of payback, and I think they are
delighting in that.”
